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AUSTRALIA’S RISINGGREENHOUSE GASEMISSIONSCLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AUThe Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisationproviding quality information on climate change to the Australian public.Thank you forsupporting theClimate Council.twitter.com/climatecouncilfacebook.com/climatecouncil info@climatecouncil.org.auclimatecouncil.org.auPublished by the Climate Council of Australia Limited

ISBN:
978-1-925573-59-6 (print)978-1-925573-58-9 (digital)

© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2018This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All materialcontained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltdexcept where a third party source is indicated.Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under theCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of thislicense visit http://creativecommons.org.au.You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council ofAustralia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the ClimateCouncil of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner:Working paper: Australia’s rising greenhouse gas emissions.Authors: Greg Bourne, Andrew Stock, Will Steffen, Petra Stock and LouisBrailsford.We would like to thank Anna Malos (ClimateWorks) for her thorough review.—Cover image: “Loy Yang 2” by Flickr user Greenstone Girl licensed underCC BY-NC 2.0.This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.Greg BourneClimate CouncillorLouis BrailsfordResearcherPetra StockSenior Energy and ClimateSolutions AnalystContentsProfessor Andrew StockClimate CouncillorKey Findings ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………ii1. Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12. Australia’s rising emissions………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 63. Assessing Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target…………………………………………………………………………………. 94. Sector Profles:………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12Electricity 12Transport 15Stationary Energy 18Agriculture 21Fugitive Emissions 24Industrial Processes 26Waste 285. The electricity sector can and should do more ……………………………………………………………………………………………..30References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 32Image Credits ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34Professor Will SteffenClimate CouncillorAuthors:CLIMATE COUNCIL iiiKey FindingsAustralia’s emissions arerising and projected tocontinue increasing withoutcredible and comprehensiveclimate and energy policy.› Australia’s greenhouse gasemissions have increased forthe past three years, reaching556.4 MtCO2e in the year toDecember 2017.› Australia’s greenhouse gasemission levels are very closeto all-time highs (excludingland use emissions).› Eight of Australia’s major sectorsare responsible for Australia’srising emissions. These sectorsare electricity, transport,stationary energy, agriculture,fugitive emissions, industrialprocesses, waste and land use.› The electricity sector is thebiggest polluter accountingfor 33% of our emissions.1 2Australia’s emissionsreduction target is woefullyinadequate to protectAustralians from intensifyingclimate change.› Australia’s 26-28% emissionsreduction target for 2030 on a2005 baseline is not adequateto meet the Paris ClimateAgreement targets.› Australia’s share of theremaining global carbonbudget is about 5,500 Mt CO2e.› If Australia’s emissionscontinue at current rates wehave only 10 years remainingbefore we will completelyexhaust our carbon budgetbefore 2030.› If other countries were to adoptclimate policies similar toAustralia’s then global averagetemperature rise could reachover 3°C and up to 4°C. A fourdegree world would presentserious challenges for humansurvival, placing billions oflives at risk.› A more appropriate target forAustralia in line with the sciencewould be a 45-65% emissionsreduction target by 2030, asrecommended by the ClimateChange Authority and zero netemissions well before 2050.WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSKEY FINDINGS iii3 4 5Applying a pro-rata emissionsreduction target of 26-28% by2030 to each sector is not themost cost-effective wayto reduce emissions.› The Federal Government’sNational Energy Guaranteeproposes to lock in a 26%emissions reduction targetfor the electricity sector. Thisapproach implies other sectorswould also be expected toreduce their emissions by 26%by 2030 (on 2005 levels).› Applying a pro-rata reductiontarget to each sector wouldmean signifcant new policiesand emissions reductionsare required for every sectorbetween now and 2030.› The electricity sector is betterplaced to reduce emissions atlower cost than other sectors,such as agriculture and fugitiveemissions. Reducing emissionsin these sectors will potentiallybe very costly and challenging,whereas options to reduceelectricity sector emissionsare readily available and costeffective (e.g. renewable energyand storage technologies).Australia is currently noteven on track to meet itscurrent inadequate emissionsreduction target for 2030.› The electricity sector would berequired to reduce cumulativeemissions by only 8% comparedto business as usual from 2018and 2030 in order to achieve apro rata reduction.› Other than waste, all sectors willbe required to proportionallyreduce emissions by far morethan the electricity sector(compared to business as usual).› Transport emissions andfugitive emissions would needto be cut by around a third.› Stationary energy (excludingelectricity) emissions wouldneed to be cut by 31%.› Agriculture emissions wouldneed to be reduced by 23%and emissions from industrialprocesses, which includeschemical and metal production,by 22%. Waste emissions wouldonly need to be cut by 5%.The electricity sector canand should do more toreduce emissions.› Cost-effective technologiessuch as energy efciency,renewable energy and storageare readily available and canbe rapidly deployed to reduceelectricity emissions, creatingthe time for policies in othersectors to be established andimplemented.› Several studies have consistentlyfound that there are no technicalbarriers to Australia achievingsecure, reliable power froma very high proportion ofrenewable electricity.› In contrast, there are far feweropportunities to rapidly reduceemissions from other sectors,especially agriculture andfugitive emissions.climatecouncil.org.au1. IntroductionIn 2017, Australia’s greenhouse gasemissions increased for the thirdconsecutive year, approachingall-time highs (excluding the landuse – LULUCF – sector) (AustralianGovernment 2018). In order to limitglobal temperature rise and tackleincreasing extreme weather fuelledby climate change, the FederalGovernment has committed to thenear-universally agreed Paris ClimateAgreement. As part of this agreement,the Federal Government has setin place an initial target to reduceAustralia’s greenhouse gas emissionsby 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030(Department of the Environment andEnergy 2015).Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targetof 26-28% falls signifcantly short of whatis required to effectively tackle climatechange. The Climate Change Authorityrecommended a 45-65% emissionsreduction target for 2030 below 2005levels, based on scientifc evidence, whatcomparable countries are doing and whatis in the best interests of Australia (ClimateChange Authority 2015). Recent analysisimplies that Australia will not meet itswoefully inadequate 26-28% emissionsreduction target (UNEP 2017).If all other countries were to have similarclimate policies to Australia’s, then globalaverage temperature could reach over 3°Cand up to 4°C above pre-industrial levels(Climate Action Tracker 2018). A four degreeworld would make it very difcult forhuman civilisation to cope, putting billionsof lives in danger (New et al. 2011).Australia is already experiencing theimpacts of climate change. The worldhas just experienced the hottest fveyear period (2013-2017) ever recorded.This record is part of a sharp, long-termupswing in global temperatures, with17 of the 18 hottest years on record alloccurring in this century. Increasing globaltemperatures, driven primarily by highercarbon dioxide levels from the burningof fossil fuels, is exacerbating extremeweather events around the globe and inAustralia. Heatwaves are now hotter, lastinglonger and occurring more often. Risingocean temperatures are triggering coralbleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef.1 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSINTRODUCTIONClimate change is also increasing extremebushfre weather in southern and easternAustralia, while climate change is likelyworsening drought conditions in southwestand southeast Australia. Across Australia,extreme weather events are projectedto worsen as the climate warms further,increasing the vulnerability of Australia’sageing energy infrastructure to blackouts.Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions haveincreased for a third consecutive year.Figure 1: There are eight sectors that are responsible for Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Note that the land use(LULUCF) sector was classifed as a carbon sink in 2017. Due to uncertainties around the calculation of LULUCF emissions, itis not certain that the LULUCF sector actually constituted a carbon sink.Source: Adapted from Australian Government (2018).-4%13%7%10%19% 18%35%EMISSIONS CONTRIBUTION BY SECTOR, AUSTRALIA, YEAR TO DECEMBER 20172%ElectricityStationary energyexcluding electricityTransportFugitive emissionsIndustrial processesAgricultureWasteLULUCF** LULUCF refers to land use, land use change and forestry emissionsAustralia has eight major sectors responsiblefor the majority of our greenhouse gasemissions. These sectors are electricity,transport, stationary energy (fuels like gasconsumed directly rather than used forelectricity), agriculture, fugitive emissions(gases leaked or vented from fossil fuelextraction and use), industrial processes,waste, and land use, land use change andforestry (LULUCF).2There are only a handful of FederalGovernment policies designed to achieveemissions reductions.In electricity, the Federal Government’sNational Energy Guarantee proposesemissions reductions of 26% from theNational Electricity Market (which coversall states and territories except WesternAustralia and the Northern Territory)(Energy Security Board 2017).The Federal Government’s EmissionsReduction Fund has helped fund a numberof emissions reduction projects across severalsectors, including agriculture and waste.However, most of these projects are yet todeliver any emissions reductions (CleanEnergy Regulator 2017; Climate Council 2016).Only 30.5 million tonnes of carbon abatementhave so far been delivered out of the total 191.7million tonnes that were contracted under thefund (The Guardian 2018).The National Energy Productivity Plan aimsto improve Australia’s energy productivity– calculated by dividing Australia’s GrossDomestic Product by energy use – by 40%between 2015 and 2030 (COAG EnergyCouncil 2015).Australia has also begun restricting theamount of hydrofluorocarbons permittedto be imported into Australia between nowand 2036. This policy is expected to lead toan 85% reduction in these emissions by2036 (Department of the Environment andEnergy 2018a).There has also been proposals from theFederal Government to improve vehicleemissions and fuel efciency standardsthat may help reduce car and light vehicleemissions (Australian Government 2017).These policies are at an early stage ofdevelopment. Current and proposed federalpolicies to reduce emissions from othersectors – stationary energy, fugitive emissions,industrial processes or waste – are lacking.Australia will not meet its woefullyinadequate 2030 emissions reductiontarget under current policies.Figure 2: Climate change is worsening extreme weather events,posing a threat to energy infrastructure, such as these transmissionlines near Churchill Park in 2009.3 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSINTRODUCTIONThe National Energy Guarantee places agreater burden on sectors of the economywhere emissions reductions will be morechallenging and more expensive.Under current policy settings, Australia willnot meet its 26-28% emissions reductiontarget (UNEP 2017). Australia lacks anoverarching credible plan to reach itsemissions reduction targets across theeconomy. In fact, Australia’s emissions areprojected to be higher in 2030 than theywere in 2017 (Australian Government 2017).The Australian Government’s emissionsprojections which take into account theNational Energy Productivity Plan, theEmissions Reduction Fund and the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons still seeAustralia’s emissions rising from 556.4MtCO2e in 2017 to 566 MtCO2e in 2030(excluding LULUCF) (AustralianGovernment 2017). This is 8-9% above2005 levels (excluding LULUCF).The Federal Government’s emissionsreduction target included in the NationalEnergy Guarantee is designed to reduceemissions in the National Electricity Marketby 26%. This implies that all other sectorsof the economy will also have to reduceemissions by 26-28%. Cutting emissionsfrom these sectors will be far more expensiveand difcult (ClimateWorks 2017). Emissionsare growing strongly in each of these othersectors (other than waste). However, byquickly transitioning to renewable energyand storage, the electricity sector can andshould be responsible for a far larger amountof emissions reductions, reducing the burdenon other sectors such as agriculture andstationary energy.This working paper profles seven ofAustralia’s largest emitting sectors, focusingon whether emissions are going up ordown in each sector and the reasons forthe observed trends. It also assesses whatopportunities and policies each sector has toreduce emissions. This working paper alsoanalyses the magnitude of the emissionsreductions required between now and 2030if each sector were to reduce emissionsby 26-28% below 2005 levels. The workingpaper concludes that Australia’s emissionsreduction target is far too weak to meetour commitments under the Paris ClimateAgreement and we are not on track to meeteven this weak target.Although land use emissions are animportant source of greenhouse gasemissions, they are not explored in detailin this working paper due to signifcantvariability and unreliability in data andmethodologies (Climate Council 2016).4

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TransportFugitive emissions18%10%greenhouse gasModerate/Di‚cultUpUpfor furtherNoNoemissions reduction by 2030trajectory556.4 MtCOe(excluding LULUCF*):1.5% IN 2017ARE WE ON TRACK?Figure 3: The electricity sector is responsible for 33% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions and emissions in the sector fell in2017. Emissions increased in every other sector. The electricity sector has the best prospects for further emissions reductions.5 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS2. Australia’s risingemissionsAustralia’s greenhouse gas emissionsare rising. 2017 was the thirdconsecutive year that Australia’semissions have risen, reaching556.4 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCFemissions)1. This is approaching alltime highs.Australia’s greenhouse gas emissionsincreased by 1.5% in 2017 from 2016, largelydriven up by increasing liquefed naturalgas (LNG) exports, which caused increasesin stationary energy emissions and fugitiveemissions. The coal seam gas LNG industryalso kept electricity emissions higher thanthey otherwise would have been, as gasproduction consumes signifcant quantitiesof electricity.There are eight major sectors responsiblefor Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions:electricity, transport, stationary energy,agriculture, fugitive emissions, industrialprocesses, waste and land use, land usechange and forestry (LULUCF).Emissions from most sectors have beenincreasing since 1990, the year the frstUnited Nations Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change report was published. Since1990, electricity emissions have increased by42%, transport emissions by 63%, stationaryenergy emissions by 47%, fugitive emissionsby 49% and industrial processes by 37%. Incontrast agricultural emissions declined by11% and waste emissions declined by 37%(Australian Government 2018).Federal Government projections show thatemissions in all sectors except electricity,industrial processes and waste are expectedto increase to 2030 without further policiesor action (Australian Government 2017).These projections incorporate the effects ofexisting policies such as the National EnergyProductivity Plan, the Emissions ReductionFund and the legislated phase down ofhydrofluorocarbons. The projections donot include the proposed National EnergyGuarantee which only applies to theelectricity sector.Changing Australia’s worrying trajectorywill require credible and comprehensiveemissions reduction policies that cover allsectors of the economy.Australia’s greenhouse gas emissionsare approaching all time highs.1 Data on Australia’s total emissions in 2017 is from Australian Government (2018) Quarterly Update of Australia’s NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventory: December 2017. 18 May 2018. Accessed at: http://www.environment.gov.au/system/fles/resources/7b9824b8-49cc-4c96-b5d6-f03911e9a01d/fles/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2017-revised.pdfCHAPTER 02 6AUSTRALIA’S RISING EMISSIONSLULUCF*FugitiveemissionsWasteTransportIndustrial processesStationary energyexcluding electricityAgricultureElectricityAUSTRALIA’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, 1990 TO 20302000 2005 2010 2015 2020Mt CO2-e1990 1995 2025 203001002003004005006007000100200300400500600700* LULUCF refers to land use, land use change and forestry emissionsFigure 4: Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be similar to 2017 levels in 2030 under current policies.Source: Adapted from Australian Government (2017).7 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Sector
Annual emissionsexcluding LULUCF(Year to Dec 2017)(MtCO2e)
% of Australia’semissions(Year to Dec 2017)
% increase(Year to Dec 2017)
Prospects foremissionsreductions to 2030:

Total
556.4
100
+ 1.5

Electricity
184.5
33
– 3.1
Very good

Transport
100.0
18
+ 3.4
Moderate/Difcult

Stationary energy(excluding electricity)
96.9
17
+ 3.8
Moderate

Agriculture
71.2
13
+ 1.0
Difcult

Fugitive emissions
55.4
10
+ 10.5
Difcult

Industrial processes
35.8
6
+ 2.9
Moderate

Waste
12.6
2
+ 1.0
Good

Source: Australian Government 2017; 2018.Table 1: Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions rose for the third consecutive year in 2017, driven by signifcant increases inemissions from transport, stationary energy and fugitive emissions.Figure 5: Renewable energy and storage projects, such as the Kidston solar and pumped hydro project in Queensland (below),can drive signifcant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector.CHAPTER 02 8AUSTRALIA’S RISING EMISSIONS3. Assessing Australia’s2030 emissionsreduction targetWhat is Australia’s fair share?The higher the amount of greenhouse gaseslike carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere,the higher global temperature will rise. Fossilfuels, like coal, oil and gas, are the primarydriver of the increasing amount of CO2 in theatmosphere. It is widely accepted that keepingan increase in global average temperature towell below 2 °C above pre-industrial levelsand pursuing efforts to limit the temperatureincrease to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levelsis critical if we are to limit devastating climateimpacts on our health, our economy and onnatural ecosystems. This is reflected in theParis Climate Agreement which Australiahas ratifed. Just over half this level oftemperature rise (1°C) has already occurred,resulting in accelerated climate impacts likeworsening heatwaves, bushfres, intenserainfall and and rising sea levels.The carbon budget is an approach that cantell us how much additional CO2 can be“spent” over coming years while still having astrong chance of staying below a certain risein global temperature. It is calculated usingprobabilities: the less CO2 emitted, the greaterthe chance of limiting temperature rise.Globally, cumulative emissions since thebeginning of the industrial revolutionthrough 2017 are estimated to have been 575billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (measuredas gigatonnes of carbon as CO2, or Gt C). Thisleaves a remaining global carbon budget of425 Gt C before the world needs to reach netzero emissions. These calculations are basedon the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange AR5 (2013) global carbon budget of1,000 Gt C (emitted as CO2), which reflectsa 66% chance of limiting warming to 2°C.Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are assumed tobe reduced at the same rate as CO2 is reducedto meet the overall carbon budget.Australia’s share of the remaining globalcarbon budget is around 5,500 Mt CO2e.This share is calculated based on Australia’sshare of the global population. If Australia’semissions continue at current rates (556Mt CO2e in 2017) we have barely 10 yearsremaining of our carbon budget and willcompletely exhaust it before 2030.“Unburnable Carbon:Why we need to leavefossil fuels in the ground”.For more information about thecarbon budget, please refer to theClimate Council report:9 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSThe Australian Government’s 2030emissions reduction targetThe Australian Government has committedto a 26-28% emissions reduction target for2030 (below 2005 levels).Under the National Energy Guarantee theFederal Government has proposed thatthe electricity sector would reduce itsemissions by a ‘pro-rata’ share of 26% below2005 electricity sector levels by 2030. Thisapproach implies that other sectors wouldalso be required to reduce emissions to 26%below 2005 levels by 2030.The Federal Government has yet to confrmits methodology and approach for how thenational emissions reduction target andthe cumulative emissions budget for thenation, and each sector, will be calculated.International negotiations may also have animpact on these methodologies.In Table 2 we have calculated the emissionsreductions required for other sectors of theeconomy if these sectors were required tomeet their equivalent 26% pro-rata share.For many sectors such as fugitive emissionsand transport, signifcant reductions arerequired before 2030. Land use, land usechange and forestry emissions are excluded.These calculations are based on the limitedinformation available from the FederalGovernment, and assume each sectorreduces its emissions to 26% below thesector’s emissions in 2005. The calculationsare intended to give an indication of theemissions reductions required for othersectors. These numbers are approximationsdue to the lack of detailed methodology fromthe Federal Government regarding how its2030 target would be calculated.

Sector
2018 – 2030 cumulativeemissions reductionrequired (compared to BAUprojections) to achieve 26%below 2005 levels by 2030
Annual emissionsreduction requiredbetween 2021 – 2030
Actual: current annualemissions growth year toDecember 2017 (AustralianGovernment 2018)

Total
15%
– 2.2%
+ 1.5%

Electricity
8%
– 1.8%
– 3.1%

Transport
33%
– 5.0%
+ 3.4%

Stationary energy(excluding electricity)
31%
– 5.3%
+ 3.8%

Agriculture
23%
– 2.9%
+1.0%

Fugitive emissions
33%
– 5.5%
+10.5%

Industrial processes
22%
– 3.5%
+2.9%

Waste
5%
– 0.5%
+1.0%

Note: Calculations in columns 2 and 3 are based on a 26% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030, achieved via a linear trajectoryfrom 2020 to 2030. Business as usual is based on Australian Government projections (Australian Government 2017).Table 2: The cumulative emissions reduction burden on different sectors if Australia is to achieve a 26% emissionsreduction across every sector, as is implied under the Federal Government’s proposed National Energy Guarantee.CHAPTER 03 10ASSESSING AUSTRALIA’S 2030 EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETTable 2 assumes the Australian Government’semissions projections contained within itsmost recent update “Australia’s Emissionsprojections 2017”, to be ‘business as usual’(BAU) (Australian Government 2017).From 2018 the projected cumulativeemissions through 2030 will exceed 6,000Mt CO2e if emissions are reduced on a lineartrajectory from 2018 to 2030 (assuming10%0%15%20%25%30%35%5%ElectricityStationary energyexcluding electricityTransportFugitiveemissionsIndustrialprocessesAgricultureWaste% of Total NationalAbatement 2020-2030Reduction vs BAUEmissions 2020-2030that Australia meets the weaker end of itsemission reduction target range – 26% ona 2005 baseline). This amount far exceedsAustralia’s remaining share of the globalcarbon budget.Furthermore, reducing emissions by 26% ona 2005 baseline would still leave Australiawith a signifcant task of reaching net zeroemissions well before 2050.Figure 6: This graph shows the national abatement challenge to 2030 (to attain a 26% reduction nationally compared to2005) cumulatively by sector (between 2020 and 2030) and the % reduction in each sector versus BAU. This demonstrateshow little the electricity sector is being asked to do over the next decade. By contrast, transport and stationary energysectors have far greater burdens.11 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILES4. Sector Profles:Electricity emissions are producedby burning fossil fuels to produceelectricity. Fossil fuels include coal,gas and oil (diesel).Changes in emissions:Electricity is the largest source of greenhousegas emissions in Australia, responsible for33% of emissions. The sector produced 184.5MtCO2e in 2017, which was 3.1% lower than2016 levels (Australian Government 2018).Electricity emissions have decreased by 6.4%since 2005, when the sector was responsiblefor 197 MtCO2e.Why are emissions changing?Increasing electricity demand drove upelectricity emissions until 2009, whenemissions began to fall as higher levelsof renewable energy displaced lesscompetitive old coal fred power stations.The introduction of the Carbon PricingMechanism in 2012 also drove emissionsreductions. Electricity demand also fellover this period due to increased uptake ofrooftop solar, greater energy efciency andthe closure of some large industrial facilities.Once the Carbon Pricing Mechanism wasrepealed in 2014, electricity emissions beganto increase again until the Hazelwood browncoal fred power station closed, causing a fallin electricity emissions in 2017 (AustralianGovernment 2018).Emissions trajectorysince 2005: DownEmissions projectionsto 2030: DownProspects for emissionsreduction: Very goodElectricity12What level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing electricity emissions by 26% below2005 levels only requires the sector to reducecumulative emissions to 2030 by 8% fromcurrent levels compared to business as usual.Electricity emissions are currently projectedto fall before 2020 as new renewable energyprojects are built to fll the RenewableEnergy Target (RET) and then flat-linebetween 2020 and 2030 (AustralianGovernment 2017). These projections donot take into account the effect of theproposed National Energy Guarantee.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?At the national level, the RET, complementedby investments from the Clean EnergyFinance Corporation and grants from theAustralian Renewable Energy Agency, havedriven increased investment in renewableenergy such as wind and solar. Thesepolicies, along with the now abolishedCarbon Pricing Mechanism, have drivensignifcant growth in renewable energy andreduced reliance on brown coal over the lastdecade and have helped to reduce emissionsfrom the electricity sector. The cost ofrenewable energy technologies has fallensignifcantly over a similar timeframe, drivenby economies of scale, global cost reductionsand greater experience in installations(IRENA 2017).The Renewable Energy Target will befulflled by new capacity by 2020. After 2020,the Federal Government is proposing tointroduce the National Energy Guarantee(Energy Security Board 2017). In its currentform, the National Energy Guarantee will lockin an inadequate emissions reduction targetof 26% by 2030 (Climate Council 2018). TheNational Energy Guarantee may not evenachieve 26% emissions reductions acrossthe whole electricity sector as the proposedpolicy would not apply to Western Australiaand the Northern Territory, emissionsintensive trade exposed companies wouldbe exempt and offsets could be included(Climate Council 2018).State and territory governments in theACT, Tasmania, Queensland, Victoria, NewSouth Wales and South Australia have all setemissions reduction targets of at least 100%(or, ‘net zero’ emissions) by 2050. Severalstates and territories have also set renewableenergy targets including the ACT (100% by2020), Tasmania (100% by 2022), Victoria(40% by 2025), Queensland (50% by 2030)and the Northern Territory (50% by 2030)(Climate Council 2018). Along with projectsalready contracted, renewable energy to bebuilt through reverse auctions conducted inVictoria and Queensland this year may gomost of the way towards ensuring the sectorachieves its 2030 target. If the frst round ofthese two states’ initiatives are subsumed bythe National Energy Guarantee in its currentform, these states would account for muchof new renewable energy growth over thedecade to 2030 (Green Energy Markets 2018).Electricity emissions can be reducedfurther with energy efciency, renewableenergy and storage technologies.13 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESWhat are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?There are opportunities to signifcantlyreduce emissions from the electricitysector. Fossil fuels can be replaced overtimeby renewable energy like wind and solar,together with other technologies such asenergy efciency, demand managementand energy storage (like batteries andpumped hydro) (ClimateWorks 2017). Thesetechnologies could reduce electricityemissions signifcantly over the next decade.Numerous studies have consistently foundthere are no technical barriers to Australiaachieving secure, reliable power from a veryhigh proportion of renewable electricity(AECOM 2012; AEMO 2013; CSIRO 2017;Elliston et al 2013; Finkel 2017; Lenzen et al2016; Stocks et al 2017; Teske et al 2016).If the electricity sector were to deliver higheremissions abatement to reduce emissions atleast 60% below 2005 levels by 2030, it wouldlower the emissions reduction task for othersectors signifcantly. Given the current rate ofrenewable energy construction and industrymomentum, along with the challenges toreducing emissions in the other sectors, theelectricity sector can and should carry moreof the nation’s emissions reduction burden.Figure 7: Coal and gas power stations, such as South Australia’sTorrens Island gas power station (pictured), are responsible formost of Australia’s electricity sector emissions.There are opportunities tosignifcantly reduce emissionsfrom the electricity sector.14Transport emissions are produced fromthe combustion of fuels (like petrol,diesel, aviation and bunker fuel) fortransportation, including road, rail,domestic aviation, domestic shipping,off-road recreational vehicles and gaspipeline transport.Emissions from the production andrefning of oil-based fuels and electricityfor vehicles and rail are not included in thissector’s emissions, nor are emissions frominternational flights.Changes in emissions:Transport is currently the second largestsource of emissions in Australia, responsiblefor 18% of the country’s emissions. Thesector emitted 100 MtCO2e in 2017, 3.4%above 2016 levels (Australian Government2018). Cars are responsible for almosthalf (44MtCO2e) of transport emissions(Australian Government 2017).Emissions have increased by 22% since 2005,when the sector was responsible for just 82MtCO2e (Australian Government 2017).Why are emissions going up?Transport emissions have been steadilyrising as population growth has led to ahigher number of cars on the road, whileincreased demand for freight is drivingup truck emissions. Domestic air travelcontinues to increase, leading to anincrease in aviation emissions (AustralianGovernment 2017).TransportEmissions trajectorysince 2005: UpEmissions projectionsto 2030: UpProspects for emissionsreduction: Moderate/Difcult15 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESWhat level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing transport emissions by 26% below2005 levels requires the sector to cut itsemissions by a third by 2030 compared tobusiness as usual.Transport emissions are expected tocontinue increasing until 2030, largelydriven by the forecast increase in domesticaviation and heavy vehicle, passengerand freight emissions. Improvements invehicle efciency and greater uptake ofelectric vehicles are projected to reducecar and light commercial vehicles’ share oftransport emissions between 2025 and 2030(Australian Government 2017). Under currentpolicy settings and projections, Australia willnot achieve a 26% reduction in emissionsbelow 2005 levels in the transport sector by2030 (Australian Government 2017).Public transport investment andmoving towards electric cars, bikes,trucks and buses can help reducetransport emissions.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?The Federal Government is currentlyconsidering new fuel efciency, fuel qualityand vehicle emissions standards, whichwould help to reduce emissions from thetransport sector if implemented (Departmentof Infrastructure, Regional Developmentand Cities 2018). Australia remains one of aminority of countries without such standardsand the only OECD country without anofcial fuel efciency target (ICCT 2015).16Figure 8: Aviation emissions from domestic travel are projected to continue rising to 2030.What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?There are some opportunities to reducetransport emissions through mode shiftto public and active transport alternatives,and moving towards electric cars, bikes,trucks and buses. The cost of electricvehicles continues to drop and with strongpolicies, current technologies could lead to asignifcant reduction in emissions from roadbased transport (IEA 2017). However, theturnover of vehicles is slow, restricting thespeed at which electric vehicles can replacefuel combustion engines. The amount ofemission reductions achieved by a shift toelectric vehicles depends on when policiessuch as vehicle emissions standards areintroduced and how rapidly the electricitygeneration sector converts from fossil fuel torenewable energy sources.Achieving emissions reductions in aviationand shipping will be more difcult but couldpotentially be achieved through greater useof biofuels.17 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESStationary energy emissions (also calleddirect combustion) are produced fromburning fuels for energy used directly(rather than to generate electricity),either in the form of heat, steam orpressure. This includes emissionsfrom energy production, mining,manufacturing, commercial andresidential buildings (mainly fromheating), agriculture, forestry, fshingand the military.Emissions from electricity generation andtransport are excluded from this sector,which have their own categories.Changes in emissions:Stationary energy is currently the thirdlargest source of greenhouse gas emissionsin Australia, responsible for 17% of emissions.The sector produced 96.9 MtCO2e in2017, 3.8% above 2016 levels (AustralianGovernment 2018). Manufacturing isresponsible for one third of these emissions(33%), followed by direct energy use (23%),buildings (19%) and mining (16%) (AustralianGovernment 2017).Stationary energy emissions have increasedby 18.2% since 2005, when the sector wasresponsible for 82 MtCO2e.Why are emissions going up?Stationary energy emissions from LNG andmining operations have been increasingdue to a large increase in the number ofLNG production plants and higher demandfor commodities such as coal and iron oreover the past decade or more (AustralianGovernment 2017; 2018).Stationary EnergyEmissions trajectorysince 2005: UpEmissions projectionsto 2030: UpProspects for emissionsreduction: Moderate18What level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing stationary energy emissions by26% below 2005 levels requires the sectorto reduce cumulative emissions to 2030by 31% from current levels compared tobusiness as usual.Emissions are projected to increase to 2020as Australia’s LNG production and exportscontinue to rise, while mining emissionsare predicted to rise until 2022. Thereafteremissions are expected to be broadly flat,with a fall in building emissions offsetby an increase in agricultural emissions(Australian Government 2017). Undercurrent policy settings and projections,Australia will not achieve a 26% reductionin emissions in the stationary energysector by 2030.Stationary energy emissions are on therise due to LNG, coal and iron ore exports.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?The National Energy Productivity Plan aimsto improve Australia’s energy productivity by40% between 2015 and 2030 (COAG EnergyCouncil 2015). So far, there have been fewpolicies or regulations implemented aspart of this plan, other than Clean EnergyFinance Corporation funding for energyefciency projects (COAG Energy Council2017). A number of state and territorygovernments have also established energyefciency and productivity programs, whilethe Federal Government have establishedgreenhouse and energy minimum standardsfor appliances and energy efciencyrequirements for new non-residentialbuildings (Department of the Environmentand Energy 2018b).The Emissions Reduction Fund could alsohelp reduce stationary energy emissions,although to date few projects have beenimplemented (Clean Energy Regulator2017). These programs will help reduce theemissions intensity of a range of sectors,including stationary energy emissions frommanufacturing, buildings and mining.19 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESFigure 9: Stationary energy emissions have been increasing over the past decade largely as a result of increasing LNGproduction (pictured) and mining operations.What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels andincreasing our use of renewable energy canhelp reduce stationary energy emissions.Improvements in energy efciency canalso help reduce emissions. For example,renewable energy can be an alternative togas in many applications (ARENA 2015).However, compared to the electricity sector,reducing emissions from stationary energyis often more expensive, and someapplications in manufacturing, buildingsand mining operations will requirefurther technological breakthroughs anddevelopment (ClimateWorks 2017). The manylarge LNG plants that have just been built arecostly to change and, with expected lives of30 to 50 years, will make reductions in thissector by 2030 difcult.20Agriculture emissions include methaneand nitrous oxide produced by thedigestive processes of animals (such ascattle and sheep), manure management,rice cultivation, agricultural soils andfeld burning of agricultural residues. Italso includes carbon dioxide emissionsproduced by the application offertilizers, including urea and lime.Emissions from agricultural machineryare excluded from this sector as they areincluded in another category. Methane andnitrous oxide are the main type of agricultureemissions. It should be noted that themajority of carbon dioxide emissions fromagriculture are considered part of the naturalcarbon cycle and are not counted.Changes in emissions:Agriculture is currently the fourth largestsource of greenhouse gas emissions inAustralia, responsible for 13% of Australia’semissions. The sector produced 71.2MtCO2e in 2017, a 1% increase from 2016(Australian Government 2018). Two-thirds ofagricultural emissions (46 MtCO2e) are theresult of grazing beef and sheep (AustralianGovernment 2017).Emissions have decreased by 6.3% since2005, when the sector was responsible for 76MtCO2e.Why are emissions going down?Periods of low rainfall during the millenniumdrought have reduced agricultural activity,causing an overall fall in emissions fromthe sector over the past 13 years (AustralianGovernment 2017).AgricultureEmissions trajectorysince 2005: DownEmissions projectionsto 2030: UpProspects for emissionsreduction: Difcult21 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESWhat level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing agriculture emissions by 26%below 2005 levels requires the sector to reducecumulative emissions to 2030 by 23% fromcurrent levels compared to business as usual.Agricultural emissions are predicted toincrease up to 2030 due to “an assumedreturn to average seasonal conditions”and increased food demand (AustralianGovernment 2017). However, the effects ofclimate change increase the likelihood thataverage seasonal conditions will not return(Climate Council 2015). Under current policysettings, Australia is unlikely to achieve a 26%reduction below 2005 levels in emissions inthe agriculture sector by 2030.Reduced agricultural activity duringthe millennium drought caused thissector’s emissions to fall.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?The Federal Government’s EmissionsReduction Fund (which succeeded theCarbon Farming Initiative) has helped funda number of emissions reduction projectsacross several sectors, including agriculture.However, most of these projects have not yetdelivered any emissions reductions (CleanEnergy Regulator 2017; Climate Council2016). Only 30.5 million tonnes of carbonabatement have so far been delivered outof the total 191.7 million tonnes that werecontracted under the fund (The Guardian2018). This program was not providedwith any further funding in the FederalGovernment’s 2018 budget (SydneyMorning Herald 2018b).22What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?There are limited opportunities to reduceemissions in the agricultural sector.Reducing emissions will require both changeto agricultural practices and signifcantbehavioural change. Possible solutionsinclude greater use of regenerative agricultureand managed grazing (Hawken 2017).Figure 10: Grazing beef and sheep are responsible for two thirds of Australia’s agriculture emissions.Achieving emissions reductions in the sectorwill be very difcult. Placing a signifcantemissions reduction burden on agriculturewill place even more pressure on a sector thatis already doing it tough.23 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESFugitive emissions are produced whengreenhouse gases like methane andcarbon dioxide are released (throughventing or leaks) during the extraction,processing and delivery of fossil fuels.It does not include emissions producedwhen these fuels are burnt during thegeneration of electricity, operatingmining equipment or transportingfossil fuels, which are covered inother categories.Changes in emissions:Fugitive emissions are the ffth largestsource of greenhouse gas emissions inAustralia, responsible for 10% of emissions.The sector produced 55.4 MtCO2e in 2017,a 10.5% increase from 2016 (AustralianGovernment 2018). Fugitive emissions aremostly released from underground coalmines, coal seam gas and conventional gasproduction. Gas and coal production areeach responsible for around 43% of fugitiveemissions (Australian Government 2017).Emissions have increased by 42.1% since2005, when the sector was responsible for39 MtCO2e.Why are emissions going up?Fugitive emissions have increasedsignifcantly due to Australia’s increasingLNG production and exports. Whengas is extracted, signifcant amounts ofgreenhouse gases, particularly methane,are released into the atmosphere (AustralianGovernment 2017; 2018).Fugitive EmissionsEmissions trajectorysince 2005: UpEmissions projectionsto 2030: UpProspects for emissionsreduction: DifcultFugitiveemissionshave increasedsignifcantlydue to Australia’sgrowing LNGexports.24What level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing fugitive emissions by 26% below2005 levels requires the sector to reducecumulative emissions to 2030 by 33% fromcurrent levels compared to business as usual.LNG production is projected to drive furtherincreases in fugitive emissions to 2020 beforegrowing more slowly to 2030 (AustralianGovernment 2017). Under current policysettings, Australia will not achieve a 26%reduction in fugitive emissions below 2005levels by 2030.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?Some states have introduced statewidemoratoriums on coal seam orunconventional gas extraction includingWestern Australia and Tasmania and it hasbeen legislatively prohibited in Victoria.There are plans to ban unconventional gasextraction in parts of Western Australia andSouth Australia (Sydney Morning Herald2018a). These policies will not reduce fugitiveemissions from current levels but they willhelp to prevent further increases. In April2018, the Northern Territory Governmentlifted its moratorium on unconventional gasexploration (Sydney Morning Herald 2018a).There are no Federal Government policiesexpected to reduce fugitive emissions.What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?By transitioning to renewable energy andaway from coal and gas, fugitive emissionscan be eliminated in coming decades.However, this would also require Australia’seconomy to transition away from exportingcoal and LNG, which were Australia’s secondand fourth largest exports respectivelyin 2016-17 (Austrade 2017). In the shorterterm, greater methane burning (rather thanventing) from gas production sites and coalmines could help reduce fugitive emissions.Figure 11: Increasing LNG extraction from coal seam gas wells (pictured) has driven a signifcant increase in fugitive emissions.25 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESEmissions from industrial processesare produced as a by-product ofmaterials and reactions used inproduction processes. These includethe production of chemical, metal andmineral products and the consumptionof synthetic gases.Changes in emissions:Emissions from industrial processes arethe sixth largest source of greenhouse gasemissions in Australia, responsible for 6% ofAustralia’s emissions. The sector produced35.8 MtCO2e in 2017, a 2.9% increase from2016. These increases were driven byhigher iron and steel production as well asincreasing emissions from products thatare replacing ozone depleting substances(Australian Government 2018).Emissions have increased by 11.9% since2005, when the sector was responsible for32 MtCO2e.Why are emissions going up?Increases in emissions from industrialprocesses over the past decade havebeen driven by the replacement of ozonedepleting substances with other substancesthat are greenhouse gases, such ashydrofluorocarbons. These emissions areresponsible for 13 MtCO2e, over one third ofall emissions from industrial processes inAustralia (Australian Government 2018).Industrial ProcessesEmissions trajectorysince 2005: UpEmissions projectionsto 2030: DownProspects for emissionsreduction: ModerateIncreased emissions from industrialprocesses have been driven by ironand steel production.26What level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 28% reduction?Reducing emissions from industrialprocesses by 26% below 2005 levelsrequires the sector to reduce cumulativeemissions to 2030 by 22% from currentlevels compared to business as usual.The phase-down of hydrofluorocarbonsis expected to only marginally reduceemissions from industrial processesbetween 2020 and 2030 (AustralianGovernment 2018). Under current policysettings, Australia will not achieve a 26%reduction below 2005 levels in emissions inthe industrial processes sector by 2030.Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?Beginning in January 2018, Australia willrestrict the amount of hydrofluorocarbonspermitted to be imported into Australiabetween now and 2036. This policy isexpected to lead to an 85% reduction inhydrofluorocarbon emissions by 2036(Department of the Environment andEnergy 2018a).What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?The phase down of hydrofluorocarbonswill help reduce emissions from industrialprocesses by 2030. However, there are limitedprospects to reduce emissions from themetal, mineral and chemical industries.Figure 12: A large chemical plant in Germany. Emissions from industrial processes, including chemical production, areprojected to continue increasing to 2030.27 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 04SECTOR PROFILESWaste emissions are produced inlandfll, waste water treatment, wasteincineration and the biologicaltreatment of solid waste. Methane is themajor greenhouse gas that is producedwhen organic matter decays in theabsence of oxygen.Changes in emissions:Waste emissions are the seventh largestsource of greenhouse gas emissions inAustralia, responsible for 2% of Australia’semissions. The sector produced 12.6MtCO2e in 2017, a 1% increase from 2016.This increase was driven by an increase inemissions from solid waste disposal due tolower rates of methane capture at landflls(Australian Government 2018).Emissions have decreased by 10% since 2005,when the sector was responsible for 14 MtCO2e.Why are emissions going down?Prior to 2017, declines in waste emissionswere driven by falling emissions from solidwaste disposal due to higher rates of methanecapture. However, methane capture rates fellin 2017 (Australian Government 2018).What level do emissions need tobe in 2030 for a 26% reduction?Reducing waste emissions by 26% below2005 levels requires the sector to reducecumulative emissions to 2030 by 5% fromcurrent levels compared to business as usual.Waste emissions are projected to decreaseuntil 2022 as a result of increased recyclingand methane capture. Beyond 2022,emissions are projected to rise again asa result of population growth and theconclusion of the Emissions ReductionWasteEmissions trajectorysince 2005: DownEmissions projectionsto 2030: DownProspects for emissionsreduction: GoodWaste emissionsare expectedto reduce to2022 due tomethane captureand increasedrecycling.28Fund. Overall, waste emissions are forecastto reduce to 10 MtCO2e in 2020 and still beat this level in 2030. If these projections arecorrect, the waste sector is broadly on trackto reduce emissions by 26% below 2005 levels(Australian Government 2018).Are there any federal or stategovernment policies? Are thesepolicies working?The Federal Government’s EmissionsReduction Fund has achieved some levelof abatement of emissions in the wastesector. However, it is likely that many ofthese reductions in waste emissions wouldhave occurred regardless. As such, wasteemissions reductions credited under thisprogram may not constitute additionalreductions in emissions (The Guardian 2018).This program was not provided with anyfurther funding in the Federal Government’s2018 budget (Sydney Morning Herald 2018b).What are the opportunities toreduce emissions in this sector?In light of China’s decision to no longeraccept Australia’s waste, there areopportunities for Australia to increase ratesof reusing and recycling to reduce theamount of waste going into landfll. Thiswill help reduce waste emissions.By improving recycling rates and increasingmethane capture, it is possible to continuereducing emissions from the waste sector.However, there is limited scope for deep andrapid reductions in emissions.Figure 13: The waste sector has reduced emissions by 10% since 2005, largely as a result of methane capture.29 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCHAPTER 05THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR CAN AND SHOULD DO MORE5. The electricitysector can andshould do moreSome sectors, such as electricity andtransport, already have more affordable,readily available technologies that can be usedto transition away from reliance on fossil fuelsand reduce emissions. It would be more costeffective to reduce emissions in these sectorsby more than their pro-rata share of 26-28%.This would reduce the burden on othersectors, particularly agriculture, stationaryenergy and industrial processes, wheresolutions are either more expensive or willrequire further technological development(ClimateWorks 2017).Emissions reductions above 26% in theelectricity sector are realistic and achievable.Several studies have consistently found thatthere are no technical barriers to Australiaachieving secure, reliable power from a veryhigh proportion of renewable electricity.The Federal Government’s proposedemissions target for the National EnergyGuarantee implies that each sector ofthe economy will contribute a (pro rata)26-28% share to achieving Australia’s2030 emissions reduction target.However, this is not the most costeffective or technologically efcient wayof achieving emissions reductions.Emissions reductions above 26% inthe electricity sector are realistic andachievable. The electricity sector canand should do more.30Exactly how emissions reductions aredivided up across different sectorscan have a major effect on the costof Australia meeting its emissionsreduction targets.The implied approach under theNational Energy Guarantee is that everysector reduces emissions by its prorata share. A 26% emissions reductionfrom each sector by 2030 would implythe need to reduce greenhouse gasemissions from 2017 levels comparedto business as usual by:› 8% in the electricity sector› 33% in the transport sector› 31% in the stationary energy sector› 23% in the agricultural sector› 33% in fugitive emissions› 22% in the industrial processes sector› 5% in the waste sectorAustralia’s emissions reduction targetof 26-28% by 2030 below 2005 levels isan inadequate response to the threatof climate change and not in line withthe commitment Australia has madeunder the Paris Climate Agreement.The Climate Change Authorityrecommended a 45-65% emissionsreduction target for 2030 below 2005levels for Australia to do its fair share toreduce emissions. This is based on thescientifc evidence, what comparablecountries are doing and what is in thebest interests of Australia (ClimateChange Authority 2015).If the electricity sector were to reduceemissions at least 60% below 2005 levelsby 2030, it would lower the emissionsreduction task for other sectors signifcantly.Given the current rate of renewable energyconstruction and industry momentum, alongwith the challenges to reducing emissionsin the other sectors, the electricity sectorcan and should carry more of the nation’semissions reduction burden.Australia needs an ambitious emissionsreduction target and a credible climate policythat covers all sectors of the economy. TheNational Energy Guarantee in its currentform proposes inadequate emissionsreductions from the electricity sector,making it very difcult for Australia to reacheven its weak emissions reduction target of26-28% by 2030.‘Clean and ReliablePower: Roadmap to aRenewable Future’.You can read more about what a credibleclimate and energy policy should look likein the Climate Council’s report:31 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSREFERENCESReferencesAECOM (2012) 100% Renewables. Accessed at: http://jenny.riesz.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/100-Renewables-will-the-electricity-market-work.pdfAEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) (2013) 100 percent renewable study – modelling outcomes. Accessedat: https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/aemo-modelling-outcomesARENA (Australian Renewable Energy Agency) (2015)Renewable Energy Options for Australian Industrial GasUsers. Prepared by IT Power. Accessed at: https://arena.gov.au/assets/2017/05/ITP-RE-options-for-industrial-gasusers-Summary.pdfAustrade (2017) Trade and Investment Note: Australia’sExport Performance in FY2017. Accessed at: https://www.austrade.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/5720/Australias_export_performance_FY2017.pdf.aspx?Embed=YAustralian Government (2017) Australia’s emissionsprojections 2017. Accessed at: http://www.environment.gov.au/system/fles/resources/eb62f30f-3e0f-4bfa-bb7ac87818160fcf/fles/australia-emissions-projections-2017.pdfAustralian Government (2018) Quarterly Update ofAustralia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: December2017. 18 May 2018. Accessed at: http://www.environment.gov.au/system/fles/resources/7b9824b8-49cc-4c96-b5d6-f03911e9a01d/fles/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2017-revised.pdfClean Energy Regulator (2017) Auction December2017. 14 December 2018. Accessed at: http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Auctions-results/December-2017Climate Action Tracker (2018) Australia: current policyprojections. Updated 30 April 2018. Accessed at: https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/currentpolicy-projections/Climate Change Authority (2015) Final Report on Australia’sFuture Emissions Reduction Targets. 2 July 2015. Accessedat: http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/fles/fles/CFI/Final-reportAustralia-future-emissions-reduction-targets.pdfClimate Council (2015) Feeding a Hungry Nation: ClimateChange, Food and Farming in Australia. 7 October 2015.Accessed at: http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/317674ad3c4efd4905b2950380a2b0fe.pdfClimate Council (2016) Land Carbon: No Substitute forAction on Fossil Fuels. 29 September 2016. Accessedat: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/aadc6ea123523a46102e2be45bfcedc8.pdfClimate Council (2018) Clean & Reliable Power: Roadmapto a Renewable Future. 2 March 2018. Accessed at: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/2281dea087b8f3360bb96b6cad17edf7.pdfClimateWorks (2017) Power Up: Australia’s electricitysector can and should do more to deliver on our climatecommitments. Accessed at: https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/fles/documents/publications/cwa_power_up_report_fnal_12_jul.pdfCOAG Energy Council (2015) National EnergyProductivity Plan 2015-2030. Accessed at: http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/fles/publications/documents/National%20Energy%20Productivity%20Plan%20release%20version%20FINAL_0.pdfCOAG Energy Council (2017) National EnergyProductivity Plan: Annual Report 2017. Accessed at: http://coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/fles/publications/documents/NEPP%20Annual%20Report%202017-web.pdfCSIRO (2017) Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap.Accessed at: http://www.energynetworks.com.au/electricity-network-transformation-roadmapDepartment of the Environment and Energy (2015)Australia’s 2030 climate change target. Accessed at: http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-targetDepartment of the Environment and Energy (2018a) HFCphase-down – Frequently asked questions. Accessed at:http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/hfcphase-down/hfc-phase-down-faqsDepartment of the Environment and Energy (2018b) EnergyEfciency. Accessed at: http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/efciencyDepartment of Infrastructure, Regional Developmentand Cities (2018) Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions.Accessed at: https://infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/index.aspxElliston B, MacGill I, Diesendorf M (2013) Least cost100% renewable electricity scenarios in the AustralianNational Electricity Market. Accessed at: http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/sites/all/fles/profle_fle_attachments/LeastCostElectricityScenariosInPress2013.pdfEnergy Security Board (2017) Energy Security BoardAdvice: The National Energy Guarantee. 20 November2017. Accessed at: http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/fles/publications/documents/Report%20on%20the%20National%20Energy%20Guarantee.pdf32Sydney Morning Herald (2018b) Budget 2018: Funding cutsput Paris climate goal further out of reach. 9 May 2018.Accessed at: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/budget-2018-funding-cuts-put-parisclimate-goal-further-out-of-reach-20180509-p4ze66.htmlTeske S, Dominish E, Ison N, Maras K (2016) 100%Renewable Energy for Australia. Report prepared by ISF forGetUp! And Solar Citizens, March 2016. Accessed at: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/fles/article/downloads/ISF_100%25_Australian_Renewable_Energy_Report.pdfThe Guardian (2018) Up in smoke: what did taxpayers get forthe $2bn emissions fund? 3 June 2018. Accessed at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/03/up-insmoke-what-did-taxpayers-get-for-their-2bn-emissionsfundUNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) (2017)The Emissions Gap Report 2017. United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi. Accessed atwww.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-reportFinkel A (2017) Independent Review into the Future Securityof the National Electricity Market. Blueprint for the Future.Accessed at: https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricitymarket-blueprint-futureGreen Energy Markets (2018) Renewable Energy Index –March 2018. 18 April 2018. Accessed at: http://greenmarkets.com.au/images/uploads/Resources/RE_Index/Renewable_Energy_Index_-_Mar_2018.pdfHawken P (eds) (2017) Drawdown: The Most ComprehensivePlan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming. PenguinBooks. New York.ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)(2015) Transition to a Global Zero-Emission Vehicle Fleet:A Collaborative Agenda for Governments. 29 September2015. Accessed at: https://www.theicct.org/publications/transition-global-zero-emission-vehicle-fleetcollaborative-agenda-governmentsIEA (International Energy Agency) (2018) Tracking CleanEnergy Progress 2017. 6 June 2017. Accessed at: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TrackingCleanEnergyProgress2017.pdfIRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) (2017)Renewable Power: Sharply Falling Generation Costs.Accessed at: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Nov/%20IRENA_Sharply_falling_costs_2017.pdfLenzen M, McBain B, Trainer T, Jutte S, Rey-Lescure O,Huang J (2016) Simulating low-carbon electricity supplyfor Australia. Accessed at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916309400New M, Liverman D, Schroder H, and Anderson K (2011)Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a globaltemperature increase of four degrees and its implications.Phil. Trans. R. Soc, 369 6-19; DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0303.Stocks M, Blakers A, Lu B (2017) Pumped Hydro EnergyStorage to Support a 50-100% renewable electricitygrid. Select Committee into the Resilience of ElectricityInfrastructure in a Warming World. Submission 35.Sydney Morning Herald (2018a) Northern Territory lifts banon onshore gas fracking. 17 April 2018. Accessed at: https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/northernterritory-lifts-ban-on-onshore-gas-fracking-20180417-p4za0v.html33 WORKING PAPER:AUSTRALIA’S RISING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSIMAGE CREDITSImage CreditsCover image: “Loy Yang 2” by Flickr user Greenstone Girllicensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.Page 2: Figure 1 – Adapted from Australian Government(2018) Quarterly Update of Australia’s National GreenhouseGas Inventory: December 2017. 18 May 2018. Accessedat: http://www.environment.gov.au/system/fles/resources/7b9824b8-49cc-4c96-b5d6-f03911e9a01d/fles/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2017-revised.pdfPage 3: Figure 2 “Power Lines at Sunset” by Flickr userGreenstone Girl licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.Page 7: Figure 4 – Adapted from Australian Government(2017) Australia’s emissions projections 2017. Accessed at:http://www.environment.gov.au/system/fles/resources/eb62f30f-3e0f-4bfa-bb7a-c87818160fcf/fles/australiaemissions-projections-2017.pdfPage 8: Figure 5 “Kidston solar and pumped hydro project.”Image courtesy of GenexPower.Page 14: Figure 7 “Inside Torrens Island Power Station” byFlickr user UCL Engineering licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.Page 17: Figure 8 “Virgin Australia Airbus A330-200” byFlickr user Luke McConville licensed under CC BY-NC-ND2.0.Page 20: Figure 9 “Curtis Island LNG plant, Gladstone QLD”by Flickr user Beyond Coal & Gas Image Library licensedunder CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.Page 23: Figure 10 “Cows in Brown Fields” by Flickr userMichael Coghlan licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.Page 25: Figure 11 “LTGA Documentaries Trailer” by Flickruser Lock the Gate Alliance licensed under CC BY 2.0.Page 27: Figure 12 “Where Bladerunners go to rest” by Flickruser Raul Lieberwirth licensed under CC BY-NC-NC 2.0.Page 29: Figure 13 “if companies would use products…”by Flickr user Nicolas Boullosa licensed under CC BY 2.0.34
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